This artical is based on the mature stratifi ed model of CRBT（Color Ring Back Tone） operation quality evaluation

in view of the problems that quality operation’s abstractness and can not be directly quantified and forecasting

here using "divide and rule" thought to divide service operation quality perception into several KPI partitions

then give the KPI-oriented basic forecasting model respectively.The main content includes forecasting model established process elaborating with single moving average algorithm applied to.Moreover

giving a detailed sample illustration for a certain KPI—color ring downloads and fi nally discussing about the model application value and scope.