Crack initiation life behaves large scatter which induces inconvenience in the evaluation of the safe boundary in predicting low cycle fatigue(LCF) life of disks.To determine the safety life
a probability model based on strain fatigue was introduced to take into account the random factors such as rotating speed
material property and the interference between pin bolt and pinhole.Then the distribution of the disk fatigue life was acquired through the combination of the response surface method and Monte-Carlo simulation.Finally
the life with reliability level of 99.87% was derived and fitted well with the technical life of the disk based on test evaluation.