HAN Hongquan, WU Shan, HOU Benwei. Short-term water demand prediction model using kernel-based extreme learning machine[J]. 2022, 54(2): 17-24.
DOI:
HAN Hongquan, WU Shan, HOU Benwei. Short-term water demand prediction model using kernel-based extreme learning machine[J]. 2022, 54(2): 17-24.DOI: 10.11918/202012021.
Short-term water demand prediction model using kernel-based extreme learning machine
To meet the requirements of the daily management of water supply systems for short-term water demand prediction timeliness
a kernel-based extreme learning machine model (KELM) was established
which requires short training time. From the perspective of improving the prediction accuracy
a residual correction module based on the Fourier series (FS) was constructed
which was used to model the difference between the initial predicted value and the observed value of water demand
and the residual correction of the initial predicted value was completed. The module was superimposed on the KELM model to form the hybrid prediction model (KELM+FS). The performance of the models was tested using real water demand data. Experimental results show that the KELM model could produce similar prediction accuracy as the artificial neural network model and the support vector regression model
but the prediction time was only about 5% of the average time of the two models. Compared with the KELM model
the relative prediction accuracy of the hybrid model KELM+FS was improved by about 12% without significantly increasing the prediction time. Therefore
when applied to short-term water demand prediction
both the single model KELM and the hybrid model KELM+FS could achieve the goal of improving the prediction efficiency.