For the issues of a large number of geometric variables

hard to select geometric random variables and determine their probability distributions

rebuilding the finite element model in an automated fashion

and huge numerical computation comsuption when conducting the LCF (low cycle fatigue) life prediction considering geometric uncertainties of turbine disk. A geometric uncertainty probabilistic processing method was proposed. First

the design of experiments method was employed to determine key geometric parameters

which would be treated as random variables for LCF prediction. Second

the KS (KolmogorovSmirnov) method was adopted to determine the probability distributions of random variables. Third

a surrogate model was built to conduct Monte Carlo simulation. On this basis

turbine disk probabilistic analysis system was developed. The LCF life probabilistic analysis work of a GH720Li turbine engine disk was completed under the turbine disk probability analysis system

by which three key geometric parameters (inner diameter

outer diameter

rim thickness) and lifereliability curve of the turbine disk were obtained. Analysis results shows that the outer diameter of turbine disk has a strong impact on the LCF life.