Considering the anisotropy and dispersion of thermal conductivity for ceramic matrix composites (CMC)

a probabilistic thermal analysis model was established for predicting the temperature field of hot components made of CMC. Taking the cooling configuration of Mark Ⅱ turbine vane as an example

and assuming it was made of anisotropic CMC

the mean value and variation of the blades temperature field by the finite element method coupled with Monte Carlo simulations was analyzed. In this work

anisotropic thermal conductivities were applied as the random input parameters

the effects of thermal conductivities dispersion and anisotropy on the temperature field of CMC turbine vane were investigated. Furthermore the temperature fluctuations of leading edge stagnation point and trailing edge were studied

and the hot spot with temperature higher than 900K (T>900K) was discussed. The temperatures of leading edge stagnation point and trailing edge were distributed normally

when the thermal conductivity exhibited a normal distribution. The maximum standard deviation of temperature of stagnation point appeared when the variation coefficient of thermal conductivity equaled 01

and the thermal conductivity ratio was 2. There was a probability of 16% to exceed the mean value (12731K) by 913K. Regarding the trailing edge

the maximum standard deviation was obtained

when the variation coefficient of thermal conductivity equaled 01 and the thermal conductivity ratio remained 10. There was a probability of 16% to exceed the mean value (11529K) by 527K. The results show that the dispersion of thermal conductivity leads to the increase of hot spot

and the relative rate of increment ΔShot rises with the increase of thermal conductivitys variation coefficient. In this study

the maximum ΔShot was 48%

when the variation coefficient of thermal conductivity was 01

and the thermal conductivity ratio remained 2.