In view of the disadvantages of the classical analysis method for missile storage reliability analysis

a Bayesian model was proposed in this paper.The Dirichlet distribution was taken as prior distribution in the model.The historical information and expert information were synthetically used.Combined with the missile success-failure test data for every stage

the joint posterior distribution of reliability was generated.Then

the Gibbs sampling algorithm was used to compute the posterior inference.The Bayesian estimators and Bayesian lower bound were gained for the reliability of every stage.Furthermore

based on the test data

the model can be used to predict the missile storage reliability.The example shows that the parameters of the Bayesian model have apparent meaning and are convenient to use for engineering applications.