SUN Yong-quan, GUO Jian-ying, CHEN Hong-ke, et al. An Improved Reliability Growth Prediction Algorithm Based on AMSAA Model[J]. 2010, 15(5): 49-51.DOI:
AMSAA模型可靠性增长预测方法的改进
摘要
为预测系统可靠性增长
依据可靠性增长评估及预测理论
基于AMSAA模型研究了可靠性增长预测方法.在试验条件与改进强度不变的条件下
将仿真数据与原始数据联合
建立了新陈代谢的预测算法
给出了系统MTBF预测的点估计和置信区间估计
并进行了预测精确度分析.通过数值例的对比分析
不仅验证了本方法的有效性
而且扩展了数据量
提高了预测准确度和预测精确度.
Abstract
In order to predict system reliability growth
we study reliability growth prediction methods based on reliability growth estimation and prediction theory and AMSAA model.Supposing testing conditions and corrective intensity does not change
we establish the metabolic prediction algorithm by combining the simulation data and testing data
and then give the point estimation and confidence interval estimation of the system MTBF
analyzing the prediction accuracy.The validity of the method is verified through the ...