Dynamic bandwidth allocation is needed to guarantee quality of service when video information is delivered by wideband packet networks

while video traffic prediction plays an important role in dynamic bandwidth allocation. In this paper

both autocorrelation and Hurst parameter of self-similarity are illustrated to show traffic character of original frame sequence can be represented by traffic on the time scale of GOP. Anew variable step size adaptive algorithm is also presented based on fix step size adaptive algorithm

which is used to predict MPEG4 video traffic on large time scale of GOP. And VS S A algorithm can improve performance of prediction significantly according to a number of simulations.