LIN Peiqun, LEI Yongwei, ZHANG Zi, et al. Short-term forecasting of urban transport hubs based on mobile phone signaling data[J]. 2018, 50(9): 89-95.DOI: 10.11918/j.issn.0367-6234.201704082.
To effectively grasp the dynamic information of key regional population aggregation
guarantee timely dispatching of regional population
and prevent group security accident
this paper took Guangzhou Railway Station hub area as an example
and obtained real-time statistics of its regional population by carrying out information processing based on massive mobile phone signaling data and mapping the data to the study area using geographic information system. Meanwhile
it analyzed the change of the population in this area during Spring Festival
and summarized the periodic variation characteristics of the regional population. Based on this
this paper constructed the k value adaptive calculation model with minimum absolute percentage error
and built the k-Nearest Neighborhood algorithm based on the mobile communication data to predict urban hub traffic. The algorithm was tested under the traffic conditions on weekends and weekdays near Guangzhou Railway Station. The results showed that the average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction algorithm was around 5%. It is more accurate to effectively predict regional population.