To solve the problem of the complicated modeling process and the slving difficulty when using conventional analytical methods to predict the engine delivery time

a method based on Monte Carlo simulation to predict the first delivery time of the engine was proposed. By analyzing the historical data of the engine fleet

the exhaust gas temperature margin (EGTM) decline rule and the lifetime distribution of performance degradation excess were studied. The time distribution of the first hardware damage occurred of each major hardware was counted

the probability of occurrence of accidental damage was calculated

and the time distribution of accidental damage was determined. Performance degradation

hardware damage and accidental damage were subjected to competitive analysis

and a Monte Carlo simulation model was established to predict the law of time when the engine is first delivered. Combined with the actual data provided by the engine fleet

the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to determine the distribution type of first delivery time. After analysis

the reliability error of the simulation results was very small

between -1% and 2%

and the rationality and feasibility of the method was verified.