中美可重复使用火箭工程路径比较研究

王竞研; 李超; 谢集潇; 厚宇德

doi:10.3724/j.issn.1674-4969.20260134

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中美可重复使用火箭工程路径比较研究

“商业航天与低空经济”专栏 | 更新时间：2026-10-16

- 中美可重复使用火箭工程路径比较研究
- A Comparative Study on the Engineering Pathways of Reusable Rockets in China and the United States
- 工程研究——跨学科视野中的工程 2026年18卷第5期页码：619-638
- 作者机构：
  
  1.山西大学科学技术史研究所，太原 030006
  2.云途半导体研究院（海南）有限公司，海南 570125
  3.云镜创新（北京）航天技术有限公司，北京 100176
- 作者简介：
  
  王竞研（1987—），男，博士研究生，研究方向为科技史、火箭科学技术史。E-mail: 490018462@qq.com
  李超（1985—），男，执行院长，研究方向为商业航天。E-mail: dna.121@hotmail.com
  谢集潇（1999—），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为商业航天。E-mail: meego@spacelens.cn
  厚宇德（1963—），男，博士，教授，研究方向为科学与技术的人文研究。E-mail: hyd630418@sina.com（通讯作者）
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3724/j.issn.1674-4969.20260134
  中图分类号： V475.1;N945;F426.5
- CSTR：32282.14.JES.20260134
- 收稿：2026-08-10，
  
  修回：2026-09-08，
  
  网络首发：2026-09-28，
  
  纸质出版：2026-10-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
王竞研, 李超, 谢集潇, 等. 中美可重复使用火箭工程路径比较研究[J]. 工程研究——跨学科视野中的工程, 2026, 18(5): 619-638.

WANG J Y, LI C, XIE J X, et al. A Comparative Study on the Engineering Pathways of Reusable Rockets in China and the United States[J]. Journal of Engineering Studies, 2026, 18(5): 619-638.
王竞研, 李超, 谢集潇, 等. 中美可重复使用火箭工程路径比较研究[J]. 工程研究——跨学科视野中的工程, 2026, 18(5): 619-638. DOI： 10.3724/j.issn.1674-4969.20260134. CSTR： 32282.14.JES.20260134

WANG J Y, LI C, XIE J X, et al. A Comparative Study on the Engineering Pathways of Reusable Rockets in China and the United States[J]. Journal of Engineering Studies, 2026, 18(5): 619-638. DOI： 10.3724/j.issn.1674-4969.20260134. CSTR： 32282.14.JES.20260134

摘要

可重复使用运载火箭是当前商业航天发射成本系统性下降的核心变量，按公开标价估算，其单位入轨成本已降至航天飞机时代的约1/20。本文将可重复使用火箭视为以降本为总目标的系统工程，对照美国由航天飞机到猎鹰九号、中国由体制积累到政策放开与市场竞争的两条工程路径，并对垂直着陆与海上网系捕获两类一子级回收方案作技术权衡。研究表明：技术上的重复飞行并不等于经济上的高效复用；美国路径的关键在于机制先行，NASA从“办航天”转向“买服务”，再由SpaceX以栅格舵、着陆腿、发动机深度节流与多次启动和不锈钢箭体等工程原创完成技术整合；中国路径的特征是积累先行，其技术积累向产业能力的转化有赖于政策放开、民营企业成长、金融资本介入与军民融合构成的制度通道。衡量可重复使用火箭竞争力的基准应是同一硬件复飞次数、任务周转间隔与单位运力成本；美国正迈向全箭复用与航班化舰队运营，中国则须完成从回收验证到复飞运营、再到高频运营的跨越。

Abstract

Reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) have become the core variable behind the systemic decline in launch cost that drives the current commercial-spaceflight boom; on a list-price and maximum-payload basis

cost per kilogram to low Earth orbit has fallen to roughly one-twentieth of the Space Shuttle era. Taking launch-cost reduction as its main thread

this paper treats the reusable rocket as a cost-driven system rather than a single technology

and compares the engineering pathways of RLVs in China and the United States. It asks why two countries that started from fundamentally different institutional bases converged on liquid

reusable rockets as the dominant technical route

and what organizational

procurement and financial mechanisms—beyond engineering skill—decide whether technical reflight becomes economical reuse. The aim is to draw lessons for late-comer catch-up in high-tech industries.

Adopting a historical-comparative and systems-engineering perspective

the study draws on primary and authoritative sources—NASA cost-accounting studies (Pielke and Byerly

Nature

2011; Hepplewhite

NASA SP-4221)

SpaceX disclosure documents (Form S-1)

Chinese policy texts (Guofa〔2014〕No. 60

the 2015—2025 civil-space infrastructure plan

the 2024 Government Work Report) and official mission announcements; media reports serve only as supplementary material and are never the sole basis for cost or milestone claims. The analysis proceeds in five moves: the value of reuse

the constituent systems of an RLV

the U.S. path (Shuttle to Falcon 9)

the Chinese path (state accumulation

policy opening

private capital

recovery demonstration)

and a two-country comparison followed by an outlook. A five-level maturity ladder—controlled return

complete recovery

condition assessment and limited refurbishment

reflight of the same hardware

and high-frequency fleet operation—situates each actor

while the lenses of national innovation systems and late-comer catch-up frame the symmetric institutional comparison.

Four findings stand out. (1) The Space Shuttle showed that technical reflight is not economical reuse: its full-lifecycle cost reached about 1.45 billion USD/flight

a magnitude corroborated by both NASA and GAO cost studies

whereas Falcon 9 has cut cost about 2720 USD/kg. (2) SpaceX's breakthrough was at once institutional—NASA's shift from "doing" space to "buying" services through milestone-based COTS procurement—and technological

spanning grid fins

landing legs

deeply throttled and restartable engines

stainless-steel airframes and catch-tower recovery

rather than a mere recombination of mature technology. (3) China's reusable-rocket development was driven by external demonstration

market-access liberalization (enacted about a year before Falcon 9's December-2015 recovery)

private-enterprise growth

financial-capital inflow and state-owned technological accumulation

all within a civil-military fusion and new-system-of-national-missions framework; local governments amplified it through industrial parks

industrial funds and anchored orders. (4) The two pathways diverge along five symmetric dimensions—demand maturity

iteration mechanism

stage of progress

industrial organization and civil-military relations—yet converge on liquid reusable rockets; as a system

an RLV's economic result is decided as much by organization

procurement and mission demand as by technology.

The vertical-landing and sea-based net-capture recovery schemes differ mainly in propellant reservation

structural dead weight and recovery-platform support

and neither is superior a priori; the benchmark of competitiveness should be operational—reflights of the same hardware

turnaround interval between missions and cost per unit payload—rather than the recovery manoeuvre itself. For China

the next hurdle is to move from recovery success to reflight operation and ultimately to high-frequency

low-margin fleet service

while the United States advances toward full-vehicle reuse and higher-cadence fleet operations; cost per kilogram

not the spectacle of a single launch

is the ultimate metric. The comparison offers policy implications for nurturing commercial spaceflight through the interplay of market mechanisms and the new system of national missions

and a reference for late-comer catch-up in high-tech industries. A limitation is that several Chinese commercial-rocket indicators remain undisclosed

so cross-country quantification is necessarily partial; as flight data accumulate

a fuller empirical comparison will become possible.

关键词

Keywords

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